The Market Approaches a Top – What Can Be Expected?

Previously, I discussed reasons our economy would go through a major downturn.[1] My study of major bear markets[2] indicates that after a market top and drop, such as the one we have experienced since January 26, there is a second top coming within -2.6% and +2.9% of the first. This marks the beginning of a major bear market. Having arrived at the traditional topping range, what can we reasonably expect moving forward?

What follows is a summary of market behavior for every major bear market since 1929 that, like ours, was preceded by a correction. There are six of them starting in 1929, 1937, 1946, 1969, 2000, and 2007. S&P 500 data is used for the 1968, 2000, and 2007 bear markets. Dow Jones closing data[3] was used for all bear markets before that.

1929
The largest drops for this market were (trading days from the peak given in parentheses) 13.5%(12), 11.7%(13), 9.9%(17), 6.8%(20), and 6.3%(9). The 30-day average change was -1.07%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 15.1%. By day 30 it was 31.0%.

1937
The largest drops for this market were 5.0%(18), 4.5%(15), 4.3%(28), 4.1%(24), and 3.1%(20). The 30-day average change was -0.68%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 6.0%. By day 30 it was 19.1%.

1946
The largest drops for this market were 2.5%(15), 1.2%(13), 1.0%(30), 0.95%(14), and 0.77%(8). The 30-day average change was -0.13%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 0.9%. By day 30 it was 3.9%.

1968
The largest drops for this market were 1.4%(19), 0.92%(3), 0.90%(17), 0.89%(4), and 0.77%(18). The 30-day average change was -0.29%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 2.7%. By day 30 it was 8.4%.

2000
The largest drops for this market were 2.6%(28), 1.9%(24), 1.6%(27), 1.5%(19), and 1.4%(10). The 30-day average change was -0.33%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 5.0%. By day 30 it was 9.6%.

2007
The largest drops for this market were 2.9%(10), 2.6%(15), 2.5%(6), 1.8%(27), and 1.6%(29). The 30-day average change was -0.24%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 2.6%. By day 30 it was 7.3%.

All the bear markets declined gradually for the first week. In fact, it was rare to find a substantial drop during that first week. Except for 1969, none of the largest percentage drops took place during the first week and those were only 0.92% and 0.89%. Markets did begin to diverge during the second week with the 1929, 1937, and 2000 markets dropping 15.1%, 6.0%, and 5.0%, respectively, after 10 trading days.

Once the top was reached, there was no turning back. Instead, most markets had a steady decline. The only exception was the exceedingly volatile 1929 market, which declined 35% by the 13th day recovered 19% and subsequently resumed its decline. This is an important point for our market since the S&P 500 had an intraday high of 2801.90 March 13. This placed it within 2.5% of the January 26, 2018 high, just within the window for the second peak topping range. That would have placed that potential second peak historically early for a major bear market with a correction preamble. The fact 24 trading days later we are still waffling back and forth and in a recent uptrend is in stark contrast to previous major bear market profiles and argues against that being the second peak.

Note that, except for the 1929 market, which by that time was recovering, none of the markets had reached bear territory 30 trading days after the market peak. Technically, the 1937 market had dipped into bear territory days before it but was only sitting 19.1% below the peak by day 30. All the other markets were only approaching correction level territory.

Given that summary, it is likely that we will also experience a gradual decline with little damage the first week. In fact, with large loss days paling in comparison to those we saw in early January, it may well lull investors into a sense of complacency. Having gone through a long correction already, there will likely be little concern a month and a half later if the 30th trading day arrives with losses still in the single digits. That would be a mistake as the bear relentlessly creeps up on us.

[1] It’s Not Over, EzineArticles, April 9, 2018.
[2] The Coast Is Not Clear – Signs of an Impending Major Stock Market Crash, EzineArticles, February 20, 2018.
[3] Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) was used to gather the Down Jones closing data and in preparing this article.

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My 3 Steps To Help Make Your Home Business Successful

With the digital era that is now upon us there is an infinite number of ways to make money online. The problem is figuring out what they are, which one is best for you and how to do it?

Here are 3 ways I used to sort out the wood from the trees.

#1 – The right solution has a community that is there to support you and help you through those times of doubt. It has a step-by-step approach to learning that makes you feel empowered as you gain in confidence and expertise. It has plenty of support options for those days when you might be feeling overwhelmed with all this new information that you are trying to process.

#2 – Ideally it should be set up by people who have done the very same thing as you. For whatever reasons they wanted the freedom of working for themselves and also working from home. The started researching various options and tried many different ones. They succeeded in some and failed at others. Over years of refining the ups and the downs, the good and the bad, the money-makers and those that had little reward for the effort, they came up with something special.

#3 – It should provide ‘value’! Just the promise of signing up and believing in someone, or something, and the money will come rolling in, shouldn’t be enough. Even if the money takes a long time to come in, you should still feel like you have received something worthwhile in the meantime. This could be in the form of self-improvement and development, or in the form of knowledge, education and skills that can be transferred to other areas of your life.

In the past I’ve signed up with some home business offers that have promised the earth in a matter of months. The write-up was compelling, and the testimonials were inspiring. I never made my thousands. That’s not to say others didn’t succeed, I just never heard about them within the business. I came away afterwards with nothing really to show for it.

I’ve also recently found other solutions for a home businesses that I took time to look into. Even if the money never comes rolling in from one of these particular solutions, I will walk away with educational skills, knowledge and tools that I can transfer to other businesses or jobs I may want to go into. I’m also one person in a large community that communicates regularly.

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Finding the Right Online Business for You

How do you know what is the right online business for you? There are three main types of online businesses. To choose the right one, you have to think about who you are as a person and which one meshes best with your personality. For example, if you’re really good at writing and telling people about it, you’d do well with freelancing.

The Three Main Types of Online Businesses

There are three main types of online businesses that anybody can easily start. They are affiliate marketing, freelancing and eCommerce.

Affiliate marketing is where you promote somebody else’s product or service and get paid for an action. Sometimes companies pay if you just click on a link. Other times they require the clicker to buy the product or service. As an affiliate marketer you don’t have to provide customer support on the products ordered, or deal with product refunds or returns. There’s little initial cost. You can set up a quick website and write reviews of the product.

Freelance writing is a very flexible opportunity because you can sell your writing services to clients directly or you can use an online platform like fiber. You can live anywhere in the world as long as you provide prompt service. Because the Internet has become so content driven, there are many people out there looking to save time by hiring someone else to write for them.

Finally, eCommerce is owning an online retail store. It’s exactly like a brick and mortar without the brick and mortar. You have to advertise your items and provide customer service. You can sell your products directly through your own website or through partner network such as eBay, etsy, or Amazon.

What Skills Do You Need to Obtain

The number one skill is to know how to organize and plan your business. You need to document processes so you can provide a repeatable performance or so you can outsource and maintain quality controls.

The other skills that are nice to have include graphic design, WordPress, An understanding of online marketing including SEO, and time management. All of these skills can be outsourced. Yes, even time management can be outsourced. You can hire coaches who will help you plan your week. And then they can call you twice a day to ensure that you’re staying on track.

But only you can clearly see the purpose of your business, and the direction where you want to grow it into. Once you clearly see where you want to go, and understand who you’re selling to, then you can create your sales funnel. Then you craft (or get created) a marketing plan to fill that funnel with hungry potential clients.

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The Importance of Websites for Small Businesses

2016 is expected to become another competitive year for businesses in different industries. With the ease of entry and minimal capitalisation that is required in various entrepreneurial endeavours, it is anticipated that more and more people will try their hand in becoming their own boss through putting up their own businesses. With this, there is an apparent need to be engaged in more aggressive marketing strategies in order to successfully manage the competitive landscape. One of the most important is small business websites. Keep on reading and we will let you know why a website is an essential component of a marketing mix for small businesses.

Improve Online Visibility

One of the best things about websites for small businesses is the fact that it will help you to become more visible. It is not enough that customers hear about your business. If they are interested, they will perform a quick online search. If you are not present online, you can lose potential clients. On the other hand, if you are online, you will be more visible, especially if your website is optimised to appear on the top of search engine results.

Build Credibility

Another reason on why you should consider the importance of websites for small businesses is the fact that it makes you more credible. Your online presence has a lot to do when it comes to building a solid reputation. Even if you are a small business, if you have a notable online presence, you can easily be credible in the eyes of your clients, similar to your larger competitors.

Break Geographical Barriers

The internet is a community that has more than 2.2 billion users all over the globe. Websites for small businesses are one of the most effective tools to have an extensive reach. This will allow you to communicate to your prospects and clients all over the globe. It can break barriers and can bring your company closer to your target market. Even if you are thousands of miles apart from your audience, a website will help you to convey a message and nurture profitable relationships.

Provide a Sales Platform

Websites for small businesses are also beneficial because it can be a sales channel. Today, many businesses are tapping the power of the internet through electronic commerce. This makes it easy to sell goods and services in the absence of having a physical shop or office.

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Automotive Insurance Settlements – Negotiating the Process

Automotive insurance protects the unexpected things that might happen to you on the road such as road accidents or you hit some animals while you are driving. It protects you depending on the coverage that you have. Although auto insurance is required by almost every state there are still many who do not insure their vehicles.

Some think it is not worth it while others wants to get one but don’t have enough money. Getting insurance can be expensive but today you can now find affordable and cheap auto insurance in your local state or online.

When you have insurance and you are caught in a road accident you have the right to claim provided that the accident is covered within the agreement between yourself and the insurance company. Here are some things about automotive insurance settlements.

Automotive insurance settlements will allow individual that is involved in the accidents to claim or receive financial reimbursement for the accident expenses some of this includes fund to replace or repair the car that has been damage and some will be medical bills for treating the injuries of the people who are involved in the accident.

If you caught in a road accident then you need to go to your insurance company and claim for your insurance. However when claiming your insurance you need to know all the requirements first so that you can claim your insurance.

One of the requirements is formal documents like police reports this is to show that you are not at fault in the road accident. If the other party’s insurers do not contact you, you can then composed a letter that tells the details of the accident and attach to it the complete documents that will, support your claim you can also include the picture of the accident.

After this there will be negotiations with the authorized insurance company claim adjusters, the claim adjuster will be the one to give a specific range of money to the claimant depending on the gravity and the facts of the accident that happened.

The negotiation begins when the claimant will demand a counter amount closer to their damage and expenses then the process will continue until they agree of an amount but if they can’t agree the claimant can then ask the help of an attorney to facilitate with the negotiations.

Doing research and knowing the necessary information about auto insurance settlements can also be a big help to you also reading feedback and comment can also help you for this will let you know what to expect when claiming your insurance settlements.

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Automotive Insurance for Students – Ways To Save

Automotive insurance for students comes as part of growing up and gaining new freedoms. One of these freedoms is getting your driver’s license or if the parents have extra cash they can give you a second hand car or a brand new one.

But owning a car is not as easy as it looks for you also need to shoulder the responsibility that comes with having one. One of these responsibilities aside from maintaining it is to make sure that your car is properly insured. Almost every state in the country is requiring car owners to have their car insured.

Yet, there are still those people who doesn’t follow this requirements and end up regretting later when they get caught in an accident especially accident that is their fault for they will be the only one who’ll shoulder the expensive expenses. Here are some tips and advices when you want to get automotive insurance for student or your teens.

Young, new and student who want to get their car insured are all in the high risk category which means that their rate is higher than those that are not considered as high risk. They are put in that category because of the study or the statistic that shows most new drivers, young and student are usually caught in car accidents due to their inexperience and their aggressiveness on the road. It does not apply to all but majority of the young populace mostly age 18 to 25.

Getting auto insurance for your student driver can be very expensive and difficult, difficult in a way that it’s hard to find affordable auto insurance for them. But if you are determine and patient enough to look then you might one that will satisfy your budget.

Now you can both look for auto insurance in your local state or online, finding affordable insurance can also be found on the web provided that you are able to find a reliable website and by being aware of online scam.

If you want to save money or lower your auto insurance rate for your student then you need to do your part which is to not be afraid of asking questions. Ask your agent if there are discounts that the company are offering or discounts in which your student daughter or son can avail.

Also asking questions from your friends and relatives can also help you in finding a good automotive insurance for students.

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Why Get Automotive Insurance

Many people have a car of some description, it could be a hatchback, bakkie, sedan or any of a dozen other types of vehicle available for purchase. Most of these people have got automotive insurance, but why? It’s expensive and a bother to try and get quotes for. Then try and claim! Why then do people carry out automotive insurance?

Firstly, it is required by law to sign up for an automotive insurance policy with the purchase of a new car. This is because banks want to be able to be certain of getting their loaned money back even if the car is written off. If your car is written off, then automotive insurance will compensate the value the vehicle was insured for. This money can be used to pay off the remainder of the loan taken to buy the car initially or to buy a new car, it really is your decision and your financial circumstances.

Another reason for taking out automotive insurance is to safeguard your money against mending damage caused in a car accident. In the event you are ever in an accident and your car is damaged, either you have to cover for it or you can demand it from your insurance company. For minimal damages, it may be better ultimately to pay for it by yourself since if the repair service cost is lower than your excess payment, the insurance won’t pay out at any rate but you will be listed as having claimed which could potentially cause your premiums to rise. If however your vehicle sustains damages which would likely cost thousands to fix your insurance will pay for those repairs to be done at an approved mechanic and panel beater, all you would be liable for is the excess fee.

There are various types of automotive insurance. The first one is third party cover. What this means is that you are covered entirely against claims by other parties should you be involved in a car accident. This means that you won’t be liable to be charged the other parties’ damages should they claim you were to blame. The other option is comprehensive cover. This type is much more flexible. You are able to change your excess cost to an amount to suit your budget. You can claim for damages caused by either yourself or someone else and get paid out for the repairs. Comprehensive covers many more areas of potential damage and loss than third party does, it is however far more expensive, particularly if you happen to be below the age of 25 or have had your license for fewer than five years.

Automotive insurance is unquestionably worth the expense and effort. It will save you a lot of heartache and expense in case of accidents. You are able to use a payout when your car has been written off to pay off the car or obtain a new car. If you should be caught up in an accident, all you are responsible for is the excess payment you decided to pay. Automotive insurance may cost you a tad each month, but you will not ever have to worry about having to mend the harms caused by a reckless driver.

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Cheap Automotive Insurance Quotes – Find Yours Online

There are lots of people who need automotive insurance quotes. Finding and comparing is one way where you can get cheaper automotive insurance. Everyone wants to get the best rates and coverage for their insurance coverage.

Although most likely vary in cost from one insurance company to other and difference might be substantial. In order to get the best rates for your auto, you must be accurate in giving or providing information to the insurance company.

Usually, the good quote include applicable discounts to the policyholder although there are some other ways where you can get cheaper auto insurance. Here are some ways where you can get a discount:

Your good credit history
Good driving record
Have some safety features or device on your vehicle such as alarm and other devices
Location where you live
Low mileage.
If ever in some factors you had tickets, low credit score, high mileage, accidents or have some gap in coverage then for sure your rates is higher since this could mean high risk to the insurer.

If ever you have a good driving records and have no tickets and have a good credit history, for sure you can get a lower rates on quotes. Take note, that since you have an automotive insurance that doesn’t mean that you are safe and you can drive without obeying the traffic rules and regulations.

As a driver, you should keep your eyes on the road with presence of mind while driving. It is you who are involve on it and other people you meet on the road and their vehicle as well.

So avoid talking on a cell phone or even texting, which can wait. Drive safely by following the speed limits and when you see a red light, then stop to avoid any accident.

Avoid driving when you go somewhere which is near, body need some exercise as well as walking. This can also lower your rates having less mileage that if you want to save some money.

Find a way where you can get a cheaper auto quotes either by shopping around or if you want an easy way, shop online through the internet. More convenient and not time consuming and it is free.

Automotive insurance quotes is a system where it allows insurance companies to compete in order to give their best price on automobile and other type of vehicles no matter what driving record looks like.

Most of time, the cost of car insurance vary depending on the amount of the coverage you request and deductibles you apply for your policy.

With hundreds of insurance companies, selecting an automotive insurance quote can be over whelming task. What is good in insurance quote is that, it guides you through the process and helping you to compare and give you the most competitive rates available.

It is easy to save when you can compare multiple auto insurance quotes with different companies and automotive insurance rates vary from state to state by automotive insurance provider.

Getting cheaper automotive insurance quotes is part of the process and you have to make sure that you are getting adequate protection that you need.

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Buy Automotive Insurance Online – Save Time and Money

There are many automotive insurance options online. But before buying, try to look for various websites and get quotes from different insurance companies for your car. Of course as a consumer, you want to have a good idea of the price ranges on the market.

You should know as much as possible the different types of policies available and the typical rates. Be sure that the company online are reliable since for sure you don’t want to be empty handed when filing an accident claim, if ever there is accidents occur.

Although there are reputable companies on the internet that offer great deals in rates and coverage with good benefits. As you can see, there are easy and convenient ways to buy many different types of products through the internet and even automotive insurance, you can purchase it online.

What is good in internet is that you can browse any time of day of your choice especially if you have your own computer at home. Most of the online automotive insurance, when getting a quote, you need to fill up some information and you need to be honest in filling it up so you can get the exact quote.

Most of the quotes online are free since that is one of the services of insurance companies where they can gain consumers or customer. After gathering the automotive insurance quotes.

Try to look over and decide which company give the best deal to do business with and always remember that the higher the deductible, the higher also is the premium. It is natural for the consumer to look for the cheaper price of auto insurance due to economic crises.

The reason why we choose a cheaper automotive insurance with good deals is that in order to have someone to lean on when needed, when there is an accident since accident will come unexpectedly without knowing. An automotive insurance that can pay claims when obligated to, so financially stability of the insurance company is also one thing to look into.

The insurance companies also have weighs every risk factors differently that is why their reason for so much disparity between rates, the reason they have different quotes from each insurance companies. With the large number of insurers everywhere out in the market, you cannot avoid competition and some even lure policyholder.

As consumer, the satisfaction and reliability is what they are looking for when getting an automotive insurance. Recommendation from a friend or family is also a good idea of finding a reliable car insurance. When buying an automotive insurance online, be sure the company have reputable record and give you the best deal of your needs.

Not all the time, auto insurance online give the great deal that is why one need to do some research and find insurance company that can give the best deal of one’s need.

So be careful and be patient in doing your searching in finding a good reputable insurance company for your car before making a final decision on buying online.

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Look Here For Great Advice About Network Marketing

Do you think that network marketing is something you can’t get your mind around, then you need to learn as much as you can about the subject. When it comes to network marketing you want to expand your knowledge and pick up some sensible advice and strategies. This articles presents some information that may not have been aware of previously.

Practice your pitch on your friends. You need to be comfortable approaching people and the practice will help you to achieve that. Discuss every part of your business with them, just as you intend to do with your potential down-line and let them ask you questions. Repeat this process until you are well versed and comfortable with every detail.

When you’re engaged in network marketing, it’s imperative that you are able to visualize success as you define it. You may think this is simplistic, but honestly, you must build up a large network, and approaching this with a positive eye on success is the best way to accomplish this goal. Visualizing a successful future, and how to get there, can make it happen

While network marketing, you are bound to make mistakes so you must learn from these at all times. It is crucial to admit to your failures and understand how to correct them. By looking at your failures, you are able to eliminate strategies that do not work and concentrate even harder on the things that do.

As a network marketer working as a recruiter, you will have to show and prove the financial capabilities of what you’re doing. People cannot feel as if they’re being used to pad your personal bank account. Show them examples of people who’ve made money and how they can follow that path.

Do not try to overwhelm people with information when meeting them. You should be just starting a conversation and giving them nuggets of info about the product. If they seem interested and request to learn more, then go ahead with additional information. Overwhelming someone is a quick way to get a “thanks, but no thanks.”

When you are meeting a new prospect, do not try to attack them with your enthusiasm. Stay calm and give your prospect respect by having an actual conversation. If you go into every new contact with a “sale, sale, sale!” strategy, you will lose many potential customers. Many people are turned off by an over-enthusiastic approach.

Reward yourself for the goals that you meet. Figure out what benchmark you want to meet, like a certain number of active referrals or a minimum level of commission per month. Next, calculate what 10% of your income from that goal is, and then reward yourself with a treat that costs that much. 10% spent towards your sanity is a great return on investment!

If you feel like you have a good idea of what to do when it comes to network marketing then you’re on the right track. Just remember that there is still plenty to learn, but this shouldn’t discourage you from starting up, or using what you have learned to improve your existing business. Focus on putting one or two of the pointers in this article to use, and you will see results.

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